By Scott Ortkiese, President & CEO, Faulkner Capital Holdings
This morning, the President of the United States posted the following on Truth Social:
“The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Every one of these claims is either false, delusional, or both. Let us take them in order.
Iran’s military capability is not “GONE.” The New York Times reported on May 12, 2026, citing U.S. intelligence assessments, that Iran retains approximately 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile, has operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, controls roughly 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and has regained access to approximately 90 percent of its underground storage facilities. U.S. intelligence further found that roughly two-thirds of Iran’s air force remained operational after the 38-day bombing campaign, and approximately 60 percent of the IRGC’s naval arm survived. Yesterday, June 10, Iran struck three American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan in a single day and downed an MQ-9 drone. This is not what “GONE” looks like. This is what failure looks like, and the President of the United States is lying about it in capital letters on social media.
The United States has burned through its arsenal to produce this non-result. CSIS analysis confirmed that Operation Epic Fury consumed over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, nearly ten times the annual procurement rate of 86, with replenishment not expected until 2030 or 2031. Between 52 and 80 percent of the entire U.S. THAAD interceptor inventory was expended. Up to 61 percent of Patriot interceptors are gone. CNN reported that the United States is now at “near-term risk” of running out of critical munitions if another conflict erupts. The direct cost of the war has been placed at $29 billion by the Pentagon’s own acting comptroller, with outside estimates reaching $72 billion. And as of June 10, 2026, Iranian forces are still striking American installations across three countries. That is the box score Trump is describing as a victory.
The Kharg Island announcement is not strategy. It is a fever dream. Kharg Island processes approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Seizing it would require a large-scale amphibious and airborne assault against a heavily fortified installation in a war in which the United States has already demonstrated it cannot achieve air superiority, has burned through half its strategic air defense inventory, and cannot prevent IRGC missile strikes on Gulf bases it already occupies. Trump acknowledged on Fox News, within the same hour he posted the threat, that he was “not sure the country has the stomach for it”. He announced a major military operation and retracted it in sixty minutes. This is not the behavior of a commander-in-chief. It is the behavior of a man who makes threats he knows he cannot execute, aimed at an audience he believes will not check.
The Venezuela comparison is not a success story. It is a confession. Trump’s Venezuela oil “deal” produced a single $500 million crude sale of approximately 10 million barrels, a distressed-asset fire sale of a country the United States effectively occupied by force. Prior to that, Trump had revoked Chevron’s export license entirely in February 2025, calling a halt to the only functioning American energy presence in the country. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in ruins, its production a fraction of historical capacity, its population still in poverty. The “brilliance” Trump describes is the brilliance of a man who burned a house down, sold the charred lumber, and called it a real estate deal.
There is a word for what this post represents. It is not strategy. It is not intelligence. It is not even coherent policy. It is the impulsive, factually illiterate performance of a man who has confused the volume of his announcements with the substance of his achievements. The American military has been deployed, its munitions expended, its stockpiles depleted, its strategic reserve hollowed out, in service of a war that has not achieved air superiority, has not eliminated the IRGC’s strike capability, has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, has not produced a durable ceasefire, and has left U.S. bases vulnerable to attack on the day its commander is posting all-caps declarations of victory.
The men and women of CENTCOM deserve a commander who reads his intelligence reports. The American taxpayer, who has now spent between $29 and $72 billion on this adventure, deserves a commander who tells the truth about what that money bought. The world deserves a head of state who understands the difference between a Truth Social post and a fait accompli.
Iran’s military is not “GONE.” The war is not won. Kharg Island is not taken. And Venezuela is not a model of anything except the chaos that follows when a transactional bully substitutes improvisation for strategy and mistakes loudness for power.
Scott Ortkiese is President and CEO of Faulkner Capital Holdings and writes on energy, geopolitics, and structured finance.
Related reading
- A Bill of Indictment for Murder and Genocide Against the American Military and Trump, as its Commander and Chief
- American Empire in Ruins: The Unprovoked, Unconstitutional, and Catastrophic US-Israeli War on Iran
- Trump Prices, Trump Lies
- The King of Lies: Trump’s April 12 Post, Insufferable Deceit, Distortions, and Dangerous Irrationality
